No Canadian federal election in recent memory has been fought against a more consequential energy backdrop. Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel this week after President Trump ordered the US Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil supply ordinarily flows. Asian and European buyers who spent years treating Canadian LNG as a long-term option are now treating it as an urgent necessity. The window that Canada's energy industry has been pointing to for years is not just open — it is wide open, and there is a clock on it.
Into this moment, Canadians are electing a government on April 28. The two main parties have spent the campaign talking past the specifics of what the energy sector actually needs. Mark Carney frames Canada as an emerging energy superpower. Pierre Poilievre promises corridors and six-month permits. Both parties are promising faster regulatory approvals — Carney through his Major Projects Office with a two-year timeline, Poilievre through a Rapid Resource Project Office with a one-year cap and a six-month target. The gap between two years and six months is significant. So is the gap between a promise and a delivered permit.
What the Election Actually Decides for Energy
The pipeline MOU signed between Carney and Premier Danielle Smith last November remains the most consequential live file. Two of its four April 1 deadlines were missed, with the industrial carbon pricing agreement and the Oil Sands Alliance MOU still unresolved. A Carney majority government changes the calculus here — he no longer needs to manage a minority coalition, which in theory gives him more room to move on contentious files like carbon pricing and the tanker moratorium. Whether that room translates into action is the question.
A Poilievre government would scrap the industrial carbon price and the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, moves the oilpatch has been lobbying for explicitly. Poilievre has said the only thing standing between a new West Coast pipeline and a shovel in the ground is a federal permit — and that Carney should simply issue one. That framing is politically clean but practically incomplete. There is no private sector proponent ready to build. Enbridge's CEO said earlier this year his company won't take on the development risk given the history of shifting regulatory and political conditions. No pipeline gets built without capital, and capital hasn't shown up yet regardless of which party is making promises.
The LNG story is different and more immediately actionable. LNG Canada's Train 2 is operational and Shell and its co-owners are expected to make a final investment decision on Phase 2 expansion before year end. Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG are both under construction. Ksi Lisims LNG has federal designation. These projects exist, have proponents, and are making real decisions — decisions that will be shaped by the regulatory and carbon pricing environment whoever wins on April 28 puts in place.
The Majority Changes the Calculus
Carney secured his majority through byelection wins this week, giving the Liberals their first majority since 2019 and removing the minority government constraint that has complicated every major file since the spring election. He said it plainly: it is time to get serious. The oilpatch would agree with the sentiment, even if it has doubts about the direction.
A majority government means the MOU negotiations can move without the fear that a confidence vote derails the deal mid-process. It means the industrial carbon pricing question — the central sticking point between Ottawa and Edmonton — can be resolved without Carney needing to manage NDP or Bloc pressure simultaneously. And it means that if Carney genuinely intends to see a new pipeline built and LNG Phase 2 sanctioned, he has the parliamentary runway to do it.
It also means there are no more excuses. The Poilievre opposition will press hard on every missed deadline, every unresolved negotiation, and every month that passes without a proponent signing on a pipeline. With oil above $100 and the world watching, "it's complex" is no longer a sufficient answer.
What the Oilpatch Needs to See
TC Energy CEO François Poirier has been the clearest voice on what the industry actually needs — six-month permitting timelines, a resolved carbon pricing framework, and a government that acts with the same conviction it speaks with. He said it in Houston at CERAWeek, in Ottawa at the Canadian Club, and in interview after interview. The message hasn't changed because the problem hasn't changed.
Canada's net foreign investment gap widened from $100 billion in 2014 to $1 trillion in 2024. That number doesn't change based on who wins on April 28. It changes based on whether the winner delivers a regulatory environment that stops turning capital away. The election sets the direction. The next six months set the trajectory.
Oil is at $100. The Hormuz is closed. Asian buyers are calling. Canada has a new majority government. The conditions could not be more favourable. What happens next is a choice — and it belongs entirely to whoever is governing from Ottawa on April 29.